1 Jan 2016

These Year-End Numbers Show A Republican Party That Can’t Possibly Survive

Republicans have a serious problem — one that’s nothing new. In 2012, President Obama and the Democratic strategy team performed an electoral landslide that left Mitt Romney, Fox News and the entire Republican world stunned. They did it by exploiting the main weakness of the Republican party: It’s dying.
Republicans knew then that if they were going to make significant gains in a presidential cycle that they would have to increase the numbers of GOP voters in certain key demographics. As their base grows older and dies off, they need to replace them with younger voters. Their appeal, unfortunately, is to the low-information voter who loves ‘Murika and guns, and lives in constant fear of terrorism and home invasions. They were always going to vote Republican, those of them who are smart enough to actually go to the polls, anyway.
Where they needed to gain was with Hispanics, women, and young people. As Reuters reports from a late-November poll, the Republicans have lost ground across the board in those areas. The report gave a comparison of polls taken after the 2012 election and the 2015 numbers, showing a reality the Republicans may not come back from:
  • In 2012, Democrats made up 44.7 percent of party-affiliated likely voters, compared to 39.1 percent Republicans, a difference of about 6 percentage points, according to the analysis of 87,778 likely presidential voters polled leading up to the 2012 presidential election. The results have a credibility interval of plus or minus 0.3 percentage points.
  • Three years later, that lead had grown to nine points, 45.9 percent to 36.9 percent, according to the analysis of 93,181 likely presidential voters polled in 2015. The results in 2015 have the same credibility interval as 2012.
  • Among Hispanics who are likely presidential voters, the percentage affiliated with the Republican Party has slipped nearly five points, from 30.6 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, Hispanic Democrats grew by six percentage points to 59.6 percent.
  • Among whites under 40, the shift is even more dramatic. In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points.
  • Meanwhile, black likely voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic, at about 80 percent.
Mitt Romney didn’t collect enough electoral votes to be considered a real challenge, and nobody running on the Republican side looks like a match even for that. The real key will be Democratic turnout as it affects down ballot voting. The House is most likely gerrymandered nicely until either 2020 or until the Supreme Court says otherwise, but the Senate is always a reachable goal when a president is being elected.
The next President of the United States will take the reins in a time when leadership that is beneficial for the people and not for profit is crucial. He or she will most likely appoint 2 Supreme Court justices. Immigration, women’s rights, healthcare, Social Security and the well-being of our planet are somewhat depending on it NOT being a Republican.


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